Comparative Analysis Regarding the Accuracy of State Budget Revenues Forecasts in Romania

Mirela Niculae () and Mihaela Simionescu

Knowledge Horizons - Economics, 2013, vol. 5, issue 4, 205-210

Abstract: The objective of this research is related to the comparison between the government planning for the revenues and our own forecasts based on an econometric model. An auto-adaptive model was constructed for the revenues, taking into account the previous expectations regarding the government revenues. The U1 Theil's statistic was used to make the comparison between the two forecasts in terms of accuracy. The comparison of each type of prediction with the naive forecasts based on random walk was made using U2 Theil's statistic. The proposed auto- adaptive model could also be used by the government as a possible strategy to improve the government revenues accuracy.

Keywords: State budget; forecasts; predictions; accuracy; government revenues; auto-adaptive model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C51 E21 E27 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:khe:journl:v:5:y:2013:i:4:p:205-210

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