Analysis of Cyclicality in the Azerbaijan Economy: Results of the Chi-Square Test

Ibrahim Niftiyev and Natavan Namazova ()

Academic Journal of Economic Studies, 2020, vol. 6, issue 2, 122-134

Abstract: This study investigates the cyclical association between gross domestic product (GDP), monetary variables, international trade and foreign directed investments (FDI), and annual average oil prices (BRENT trademark) as explanatory variables in the Azerbaijan economy. The research methodology utilized a chi-square test of independence and goodness of fit test. The crosstabulation analysis used the nominal variables "increased" and "decreased" years, which refer to the transformation of the time series, mainly between 1991 and 2019. The results of the independence test demonstrated a statistically significant association between GDP, GDP per capita in current prices, international trade, FDI, and oil prices. However, the monetary indicators of economic growth, real GDP variables, and trade balance did not exhibit the same pattern. The results of the goodness of fit test showed a non-random deviation from the expected increased and decreased year in terms of GDP indicators and imports. This research is topical in light of the sharp oil price slump of 2020, which is reminiscent of the 2014–2015 downturn in commodity prices.

Keywords: Azerbaijan economy; macroeconomic data; business cycles; boom and bust; frequency analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E01 E32 E66 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.ajes.ro/wp-content/uploads/AJES_article_1_337.pdf (application/pdf)
http://www.ajes.ro/wp-content/uploads/AJES_article_1_337.pdf (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:khe:scajes:v:6:y:2020:i:2:p:122-134

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Academic Journal of Economic Studies from Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Adi Sava ().