Crise Cambial Brasileira -Fundamentos vs. Ataque auto-realizavel -

Shoji Nishijima and Eduardo Kiyoshi Tonooka
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Eduardo Kiyoshi Tonooka: Kobe University and Sao Paulo University

Kobe Economic & Business Review, 2000, vol. 44, 15-51

Abstract: This paper claims that the Brazilian currency crisis can be better understood within a framework which encompasses economic fundamentals analysis and self-fulfilling expectations. Insufficient fiscal adjustment and political uncertainties have caused a sudden shift in private expectations which lead to a run on the Brazilian real. Following Sachs, Tornell & Velasco (1996b), it is shown that the Brazilian economy was trapped in a multiple equilibria environment so that the crisis has just reflected the jump from an equilibrium without exchange devaluation to another equilibrium with devaluation.

Keywords: Real Plan; currency crisis; exchange-rate policy; sulf-fulfilling attack (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E52 F31 F32 F41 O54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2000
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