The Long-Run Impact of Trade Liberalization on Real GDP and Sectioral Adjustments

Hiro Lee, David Roland-Holist and Dominique Van Mensbrugghe
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David Roland-Holist: Mills College
Dominique Van Mensbrugghe: The World Bank

Kobe Economic & Business Review, 2001, vol. 45, 57-83

Abstract: On the threshold of a new century, most of the APEC countries are embarking on an ambitious plan for open multilateralism. Using an 18-region, 16-sector dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the global economy, we appraise the effects of APEC trade liberalization on member-country real GDP, sectoral output, exports and imports by the year 2020. 0ur results suggest that developing-country APEC members could realize significantly greater gains in real GDP than developed members. Although implied structural adjustments may be challenging for some groups, they are necessary if each member economy and the region as a whole are to realize the full economic potential of expanded regional trade.

Keywords: APEC; trade libralization; CGE model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F13 F14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2001
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