Mit Zeitungen Konjunkturprognosen erstellen: Eine Vergleichsstudie für die Schweiz und Deutschland

David Iselin and Boriss Siliverstovs

KOF Analysen, 2013, vol. 7, issue 3, 104-117

Abstract: Can information extracted from newspaper articles help forecasting the economy? A new study at KOF in which we conduct a simple keyword search after the word "recession" in the newspapers Handelsblatt and Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ), as an attempt to grasp the German and the Swiss business cycle respectively, provides positive evidence. A prediction model in which the keyword search is added performs equally well, if not better than established economic indicators in Germany and Switzerland. This applies also compared to predictions made with "Google Trends" data.

Keywords: Nowcasting; Recession; R-word Index; Google Trends; Newspapers; Switzerland; Germany (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://dx.doi.org/10.3929/ethz-a-005427569 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:kof:anskof:v:7:y:2013:i:3:p:104-117

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in KOF Analysen from KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().