ECUADORIAN FLOWER EXPORTS AND THEIR SEASONALITY: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS USING GARCH MODELING

Hólguer Rodrigo Altamirano Pérez, Máximo Ortega Galarza and Verónica Gabriela Páez Romero
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Hólguer Rodrigo Altamirano Pérez: Universidad Central del Ecuador, Ecuador
Máximo Ortega Galarza: Universidad Central del Ecuador, Ecuador
Verónica Gabriela Páez Romero: Instituto Tecnológico Universitario Bernardo O’Higgins, Conservatorio Superior Nacional de Música, Quito, Ecuador

Revista Ciencias Administrativas (CADM), IIA, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, 2025, issue 25, No 4, 17 pages

Abstract: Exports of natural flowers as macroeconomic variables present repetitive behaviors or patterns; the objective of this research is to obtain a GARCH econometric model of the seasonal behavior of Ecuadorian flowers in the international market. The applied methodology was descriptive with a mixed approach and quantitative approach to a total of 259 monthly data from January 2000 to July 2022. For this study, the Box - Jenkins or seasonal ARIMA time series methodology known as SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model) was used with the Eviews 9 program. The results showed that the application of a GARCH model to a seasonal model was adequate to forecast five out-of-sample data after generating a first difference to the original model because it was not stationary, the peak export months are February, March, and May, respectively; the first because there is a significant boom every year as a result of the fact that in this month the day of love and friendship is celebrated and orders worldwide multiply, and the third for Mother’s Day

Keywords: econometrics; Ecuador; exports; natural flowers; seasonality; SARIMA model; GARCH model. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: M11 Q53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:lap:recadm:206

DOI: 10.24215/23143738e153

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