Monthly Financial and Economic Uncertainty Index (IMIFE) for the Colombian Economy

Juan Manuel Candelo-Viáfara ()
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Juan Manuel Candelo-Viáfara: Universidad del Valle
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Lecturas de Economía, 2021, issue 95, 85-104

Abstract: This document develops an index that allows measuring the levels of uncertainty in the Colombian economy, which has been given the name of the IMIFE monthly index of financial and economic uncertainty. For this, the dynamic factors methodology was used using the historical ones of the international prices of oil, coal, gas, and the representative market rate of the peso per dollar (TRM). As relevant results, it is found that the index increased in times of economic crisis such as in 2008 (crisis suppressed) and 2020 (Covid-19). Likewise, an inverse behavior was identified between the value of the shares of Colombian companies and IMIFE; in addition to a negative impact of this index on the national economy. This index can be used by both economic policy makers, stock market investors, and organization managers.

Keywords: Uncertainty; index; colombian economy; dynamic factors; energy raw materials; exchange rate (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C43 D80 D81 Q02 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:lde:journl:y:2021:i:95:p:85-104

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DOI: 10.17533/udea.le.n95a343318

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