Presidential Elections and Municipal Development: The Colombian Case (1986-2014)

Luis Sandoval Garrido () and Margarita Marín-Jaramillo ()
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Margarita Marín-Jaramillo: Universidad Nacional de Colombia

Lecturas de Economía, 2022, issue 97, 113-148

Abstract: Can the probability of voting for a candidate based on the municipal conditions of violence and development be explain? This paper analyses the impact of economic development and violence at the municipal level on voting patterns in presidential elections in Colombia for the period 1986-2014. It uses Principal Components Analysis (PCA) methodology and generates a municipal voting index, which is used as main input together with municipal development and violence variables in a Bayesian beta model. In the end, it is concluded that with a higher level of education and access to the media, the probability of voting for right-wing candidates increases and the probability of voting for liberal candidates is less likely.

Keywords: principal Components; electoral behavior; development; violence. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C38 D72 K14 O12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:lde:journl:y:2022:i:97:p:113-148

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DOI: 10.17533/udea.le.n97a346128

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