The Export Supply Response ofMangoes: A Cointegration and Causality Analysis

Abdul Ghafoor (), Khalid Mushtaq () and Abedullah Abedullah
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Abdul Ghafoor: Assistant Professor, Institute of Business Management Sciences, Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad.
Khalid Mushtaq: Agricultural Economist, Rural Finance Resource Centre, National Institute of Banking and Finance in Islamabad.

Lahore Journal of Economics, 2013, vol. 18, issue 1, 93-116

Abstract: This paper analyzes the impact of major factors on the export of mangoes from Pakistan. We use a cointegration approach and error correction mechanism applied to data for the period 1970–2005. Mango exports are regressed against the index of relative prices of mango exports (2000 = 100), the quantity of domestic mango production, real agricultural gross domestic product (GDP), the length of all-weather roads, and international standardization, i.e., the impact of the World Trade Organization agreement. The results of the augmented Dickey-Fuller test reveal that all the data series are I(1). Applying Johansen’s test shows that the highest elasticity coefficients are found for mango production in the short and long run, followed by real agricultural GDP. The Granger causality test points to the bi-directional causality of mango exports with the relative price index and all-weather roads, and unidirectional causality with real agricultural GDP and mango production. The study recommends promoting proper orchard management, developing the appropriate infrastructure, and stabilizing export prices to increase mango exports from Pakistan.

Keywords: Mango; unit root; cointegration; Granger causality; Pakistan (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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