Die EWU als Club: Implikationen für die Beitrittstrategie(n) mittel- und osteuropäischer Reformstaaten

Sell Friedrich L. ()
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Sell Friedrich L.: Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Makroökonomik und Wirtschaftspolitik, Universität der Bundeswehr München, Werner-Heisenberg-Weg 39, D - 85579 Neubiberg

Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, 2000, vol. 49, issue 3, 313-343

Abstract: The present paper examines the choice of an appropriate exchange rate policy for selected economies in transition (Czech Republic, Hungary, Estonia, Slovenia and Poland) which are interested in becoming soon members of EMU. The approach chosen draws on positive and normative hints from club theory. The paper provides an analytical approach to determine ex-ante the optimal size (“number of participants”) and the optimal monetary conditions (“inflation rate”) of a monetary union. Also, we depart from the incentive structure of the old members to acquire new ones and of the hypothetical candidates to become new members. From this thinking, we have derived criteria (costs and benefits of accession) for the optimal exchange rate strategy approaching the EURO: the idea we come up with ultimately, is to create a new “snake in the tunnel” with a small exchange rate band within the group of candidates, but a large band of the snake vis-a-vis the EURO.

Date: 2000
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DOI: 10.1515/zfwp-2000-0307

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