Konjunkturabhängigkeit der Gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung am Beispiel der aktuellen Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise

Börsch-Supan Axel (), Gasche Martin () and Wilke Christina Benita ()
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Börsch-Supan Axel: Universität Mannheim, L13, 17, 68131 Mannheim
Gasche Martin: Universität Mannheim, L13, 17, 68131 Mannheim
Wilke Christina Benita: Universität Mannheim, L13, 17, 68131 Mannheim

Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, 2010, vol. 59, issue 3, 298-328

Abstract: The financial and economic crisis has drawn attention again on the question how sensitive the German public pension system (Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung) reacts to cyclical shocks. We identify three important channels through which business cycle movements may affect the pension system: (1) An effect caused by changes in the wage sum of the insured labour force (Beitragsgrundlageneffekt), (2) an effect caused by changes in the size of the government subsidy (Bundeszuschusseffekt) and (3) an effect caused by changes in the size of the annual pension adjustments (Rentenanpassungseffekt). We quantify these effects for the current financial and economic crisis using a detailed simulation model of the German pension system (MEA-PENSIM). Our simulation results show that the public pension system is able to cope with cyclical shocks in the sense that there are no longrun effects on the pension benefit level or the contribution rate. This cyclical stability is inherent in the system’s pension adjustment formular that links the size of benefits to the development of wages. However, it can be shown that cyclical shocks lead to increases in the contribution rate in the short and medium run. The new law that was passed in spring 2009, which forbids a decrease in nominal pension adjustments in case of decreasing wages (Rentengarantie), extends and intensifies these negative short and medium run effects because it partially offsets the automatic stability mechanism via the wage orientated pension adjustment formula.

Date: 2010
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DOI: 10.1515/zfwp-2010-0307

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