Die finanzielle Entwicklung der Gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung – Simulationsrechnungen mit dem Rentensimulationsmodell MEA-Pensim

Gasche Martin (), Holthausen Annette (), Rausch Johannes () and Wilke Christina
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Gasche Martin: Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) am Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy, Amalienstraße 33, 80799 München
Holthausen Annette: Universität Mannheim, L 13, 17, 68131 Mannheim
Rausch Johannes: Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) am Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy, Amalienstraße 33, 80799 München
Wilke Christina: Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI), NL Bremen, Fahrenheitstr. 1, 28359 Bremen

Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, 2012, vol. 61, issue 3, 337-380

Abstract: Against the background of the demographic trend the German Pension System is faced with the question of its financial sustainability. In order to predict future developments or potential reforms we apply a simulation model for the German Pension System (MEA-pensim), which enables us to replicate the pension system including all its crucial determinants (i. e. the population and the labour market). We present the model and discuss some selected simulations like the effect of different population and labour market developments on the contribution rate as well as the benefit level or the impacts of the proposal by the federal government to extend the supplementary period (Zurechnungszeit) for disability pensions.

Date: 2012
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DOI: 10.1515/zfwp-2012-0310

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