Demografie und Wachstum: Die gesamtwirtschaftlichen Effekte einer höheren Erwerbstätigkeit Älterer

Ronald Bachmann, Sebastian Braun, Friedl Andreas, Matthias Giesecke, Dominik Groll, Anica Kramer, Alfredo Paloyo and Andreas Sachs
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Friedl Andreas: IfW, Institut für Weltwirtschaft, Kiel

Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, 2013, vol. 62, issue 3, 287-310

Abstract: This paper quantifies the effects of increased employment of elderly persons on the growth potential of the German economy until 2030. Starting from an analysis of the labour market situation of elderly persons today, we construct nine scenarios for the future development of the employment level of the elderly. These scenarios differ in participation rates, unemployment rates, and hours worked of the elderly. For each scenario, we then calculate the corresponding production potential of the German economy and percapita income levels. The difference in per-capita income in 2030 between the scenarios with the highest and lowest employment level is 10 %.

Keywords: demographic change; growth; employment of elderly persons; Demografischer Wandel; Wachstum; Erwerbstätigkeit Älterer; demographic change; growth; employment of elderly persons (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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DOI: 10.1515/zfwp-2013-0307

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