Evaluation of Information Content of Economic Variables for Inflation Forecasting in Iran (in Persian)

Hamed Atrianfar () and Seyed Mahdi Barakchian ()
Additional contact information
Hamed Atrianfar: Iran
Seyed Mahdi Barakchian: Iran

Journal of Monetary and Banking Research (فصلنامه پژوهش‌های پولی-بانکی), 2011, vol. 3, issue 8, 1-42

Abstract: An effective monetray policy requires forecasting inflation accurately. In this paper¡ we examine the information content of a broad range of variables for forecasting inflation over the period 1377-1387. The results show that¡ in general¡ the variables belonging to the price indices group have the most information content. But when forecasting inflation in real time¡ the variables belonging to the national accounts group have the best performance. And¡ in the medium run forecast horizon (three to four quarters ahead)¡ M1 and M2 perform the best. JEL: C53, E31, E37

Keywords: Out; of; Sample Forecasting; Inflation Rate; ARDL (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://jmbr.mbri.ac.ir/article-1-90-en.pdf (application/pdf)
http://jmbr.mbri.ac.ir/article-1-90-en.html (text/html)
http://jmbr.mbri.ac.ir/article-1-90-fa.html (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mbr:jmbres:v:3:y:2011:i:8:p:1-42

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Journal of Monetary and Banking Research (فصلنامه پژوهش‌های پولی-بانکی) from Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by M. E. ().