Optimal Control of the Import in Planning for Economic Growth (in Persian)

Ahmad Jafari Samimi, Amirmansour Tehranchian () and Rozbeh Balonejad ()
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Amirmansour Tehranchian: Iran
Rozbeh Balonejad: Iran

Journal of Monetary and Banking Research (فصلنامه پژوهش‌های پولی-بانکی), 2013, vol. 6, issue 14, 69-86

Abstract: Using stochastic optimal control theory, the optimal values of imports in the years 1388-1385 have been calculated in the present paper. For this purpose, we set up a linear quadratic objective lose function. This model imposes fines on the squared deviations economic growth from the goals of the approved 4th development plan. The Inter-temporal target function with respect to dynamic and econometric equations and using Bellman equation is minimized. Based on our results, the optimal values of the volume of import were less than those in the approved 4th plan and the actual volume of import. Also, assuming no change in monetary and fiscal policy, the calculated amount of imports could have stabilized economic growth rate and trend close to the goals of the plan. Using the optimization algorithm in determination of the optimal volume of imports and controlling the volume of imports in the fifth development plan are the most important suggestions of this study. JEL Classification Codes: O24, C22, C02

JEL-codes: C02 C22 O24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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