How Fluctuations in Macroeconomic Indicators Affect Inflation in Iran

Hossein Tavakolian (), Majid Babaee () and Abbas Shakeri ()
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Hossein Tavakolian : Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University
Majid Babaee : Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University
Abbas Shakeri : Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University

Journal of Money and Economy, 2018, vol. 13, issue 3, 267-289

Abstract: Given the effects of inflation on the decline of household welfare and its impact on production and investment, identifying the factors affecting it in order to adjust inflation and achieve price stability is necessary. Therefore, using the TVP-FAVAR model, which differentiates the fluctuations in factors affecting inflation, we try to identify the effects of different shocks such as liquidity, oil revenues, spot market exchange rates, economic growth, interest rates on bank facilities, budget deficits, inflation uncertainty and unemployment on inflation in Iran. In this study, seasonal data from 1370 to 1394 are used. The results, based on the TVP-FAVAR model, reflect the fact that all variables affecting inflation have a positive effect on this variable. Due to the negative effect of changes in economic growth on inflation rate, especially from 1388 to 1394, the existence of stagflation is confirmed. The shock caused by changes in oil revenues is also an important factor in creating inflation in the economy.

Keywords: Inflation; Economic Growth; Stagflation; TVP-FAVAR (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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