Estimation of Value at Risk (VaR) Based On Lévy-GARCH Models: Evidence from Tehran Stock Exchange

Hossein Amiri (), Mahmood Najafi Nejad () and Seyede Mohadese Mousavi ()
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Hossein Amiri : Faculty of Economics, Kharazmi University
Mahmood Najafi Nejad : Faculty of Economics, Kharazmi University
Seyede Mohadese Mousavi : Faculty of Economics, Kharazmi University

Journal of Money and Economy, 2021, vol. 16, issue 2, 165-186

Abstract: This paper aims to estimate the Value-at-Risk (VaR) using GARCH type models with improved return distribution. Value at Risk (VaR) is an essential benchmark for measuring the risk of financial markets quantitatively. The parametric method, historical simulation, and Monte Carlo simulation have been proposed in several financial mathematics and engineering studies to calculate VaR, that each of them has some limitations. Therefore, these methods are not recommended in the case of complications in financial modeling since they require considering a series of assumptions, such as symmetric distributions in return on assets. Because the stock exchange data in the present study are skewed, asymmetric distributions along with symmetric distributions have been used for estimating VaR in this study. In this paper, the performance of fifteen VaR models with a compound of three conditional volatility characteristics including GARCH, APARCH and GJR and five distributional assumptions (normal, Student’s t, skewed Student’s t and two different Lévy distributions, include normal-inverse Gaussian (NIG) and generalized hyperbolic (GHyp)) for return innovations are investigated in the chemical, base metals, automobile, and cement industries. To do so, daily data from of Tehran Stock Exchange are used from 2013 to 2020. The results show that the GJR model with NIG distribution is more accurate than other models. According to the industry index loss function, the highest and lowest risks are related to the automotive and cement industries.

Keywords: Lévy Distribution; Value at Risk (VaR); GARCH Model; Risk Management. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D51 D81 G32 L11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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