Were Financial Crises Predictable?
Fabio Canova ()
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1994, vol. 26, issue 1, 102-24
This paper empirically investigates the nature of financial crises in the United States before 1914. It attempts to determine whether crises were statistically similar, predictable, and had a common generating mechanism. Using probit and hazard models and out-of-sample criteria, it is shown there are variables that explain movements in the probability of crises and that the probability of crises is seasonal. Two crises were predictable but in the other six episodes every forecasting model examined failed. These results suggest that financial crises were not all statistically alike and that their generation mechanisms differed. Copyright 1994 by Ohio State University Press.
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (17) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-2879%2819940 ... 0.CO%3B2-1&origin=bc full text (application/pdf)
Access to full text is restricted to JSTOR subscribers. See http://www.jstor.org for details.
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:26:y:1994:i:1:p:102-24
Access Statistics for this article
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking is currently edited by Robert deYoung, Paul Evans, Pok-Sang Lam and Kenneth D. West
More articles in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking from Blackwell Publishing
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing ().