U.S. Intervention: Assessing the Probability of Success

Owen Humpage

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1999, vol. 31, issue 4, 731-47

Abstract: The martingale nature of exchange-rate changes insures that intervention often will appear successful in terms of altering or moderating exchange-rate movements, even if intervention were ineffective and undertaken randomly. I provide evidence that intervention generally lacks forecast value, except under a weak leaning-against-the-wind criterion. When I condition the probability of success by various aspects or techniques of intervention, however, I find that central-bank coordination and, to a lesser extent, large interventions increases the probability of success.

Date: 1999
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (125)

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
Working Paper: U.S. intervention: assessing the probability of success (1996)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:31:y:1999:i:4:p:731-47

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking is currently edited by Robert deYoung, Paul Evans, Pok-Sang Lam and Kenneth D. West

More articles in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking from Blackwell Publishing
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing (jdl@wiley.com) and Christopher F. Baum (baum@bc.edu).