EU Trade with the Balkans: Large Room for Growth?

Marco Montanari

Eastern European Economics, 2005, vol. 43, issue 1, 59-81

Abstract: This paper evaluates the potential for growth in trade between the European Union and the Western Balkans. A clear-cut picture emerges from the application of a gravity model. EU trade with the Western Balkans shows considerable room for growth in both imports and exports; on the contrary, EU trade with two Balkan countries, Bulgaria and Romania, is close to, or in some cases exceeds, the values predicted by the model. From this analysis, it follows that trade policy, alongside geographical proximity, plays an important role in shaping trade patterns.

Date: 2005
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