Demographic Transition and Inflation in Emerging Economies

M. Koray Kalafatcılar and Utku Ozmen

Eastern European Economics, 2021, vol. 59, issue 1, 51-69

Abstract: Demographic transition has been shaping the age structure of emerging countries, leading to huge swings between the working-age and the dependent population. In this paper, we focus on the impact of demography on inflation in emerging market economies by analyzing the inflationary impact of different age cohorts. Our empirical findings suggest that while the dependent population (net dis-savers) is associated with inflationary pressures, the working-age population (savers) is associated with deflationary pressures. The findings also suggest that demographic transition has contributed to disinflation in these countries over the last two decades.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1080/00128775.2020.1816475

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