Using Macrofinancial Models to Simulate Macroeconomic Developments During the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Case of Albania

Lorena Skufi and Adam Gersl

Eastern European Economics, 2023, vol. 61, issue 5, 517-553

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic, and its impact on the economy tested the capacity of current macroeconomic models to forecast economic developments in turbulent times. In this article, we develop a linear macrofinancial model for Albania and examine whether it can predict the developments of key macroeconomic and financial variables during 2020–2021. To address increased uncertainty in the forecasts, we construct uncertainty bands with quantile regressions. The results indicate that, in general, a linear model is flexible enough to analyze non-linear events and may thus be used in abnormal times.

Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00128775.2023.2215229 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
Working Paper: Using Macro-Financial Models to Simulate Macroeconomic Developments During the Covid-19 Pandemic: The Case of Albania (2022)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mes:eaeuec:v:61:y:2023:i:5:p:517-553

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/MEEE20

DOI: 10.1080/00128775.2023.2215229

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Eastern European Economics from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().