Did World War II Deaths Help Prevent Deaths from COVID-19?

Michael Lokshin, Martin Ravallion and Vladimir Kolchin

Eastern European Economics, 2024, vol. 62, issue 2, 109-135

Abstract: The paper documents and tries to explain a striking negative correlation between COVID-19 mortality across countries and deaths during World War II. The correlation persists with various controls for observables and allowing for latent omitted variables, using the pre-war distribution of the Jewish population for identification. The correlation also survives influence and falsification tests, measurement-error adjustments, and tests for spatial autocorrelation, which can generate spurious historical dependence. We suggest a theoretical explanation whereby large shocks promote institutions and cooperative behavioral norms – interpretable as civic capital – that initially help attenuate losses from future large shocks, though with fading impact over time.

Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mes:eaeuec:v:62:y:2024:i:2:p:109-135

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DOI: 10.1080/00128775.2023.2278806

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