Short-, Long-, and Secular-Wave Growth in the World Political Economy

Phillip O'Hara

International Journal of Political Economy, 2012, vol. 41, issue 1, 3-46

Abstract: This paper examines the complex evolution and metamorphosis of the global, continental, and national political economies over the period 1940 to 2010. The data used are Maddison's, mostly for 1940-60, and the World Bank online World Development Indicators database mainly for 1961-2010. Emphasis is given to changes in the rate of per capita economic growth over time, arranged by decades, including the periodicity, amplitude, and phases of short, long, and secular waves. The paper starts by summarizing the stylized long-wave pattern for the 1940s to 2000s, which is then compared with that for the world, seven continents/regions, and 108 countries. Stylized facts about short, long, and secular wave patterns are scrutinized in relation to amplitude, periodicity, deviations from the stylized model and the world wave, plus multiple and erratic waves and patterns.

Date: 2012
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DOI: 10.2753/IJP0891-1916410101

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