On the Evaluation of the 360-Yen Exchange Rate

Miyohei Shinohara

Japanese Economy, 1975, vol. 4, issue 1, 3-22

Abstract: When one looks back on the postwar economy of Japan, it can be said that I, in my own way, adopted a hypothesis regarding the role of the fixed exchange rate that lasted for over two decades, beginning in April 1949. Because that exchange rate remained constant for so long, there was no opportunity for my hypothesis to be tested. I, who had continued to observe the Japanese economy on the basis of an untested hypothesis, which amounted to no more than a kind of vision, was suddenly able to encounter here an unexpected and magnificent "experiment of the century." The large revaluation of the yen following the Nixon Shock presented a golden opportunity for verification of my hypothesis of the undervalued yen. In presenting my Presidential Address, I hesitate to speak on a lowbrow economic topic like this, especially when I recall the impressive lectures given by previous presidents of this Association. For me, however, it is precisely this kind of vision that I wish to put before the members of this Association as a subject for their consideration. It was with such thoughts that I decided to choose this topic.

Date: 1975
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DOI: 10.2753/JES1097-203X04013

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