Institutional Quality and Official Budgetary Forecast Performance in EU Member States

David Cronin and Niall McInerney

FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, 2024, vol. 80, issue 2, 165-192

Abstract: Medium-term budgetary frameworks are institutional arrangements at national level intended to improve the official forecasts of EU member states. The influence of those frameworks, and other variables, on official forecasts of output growth and the budget balance ratio in 24 EU member states over the years 2008 to 2019 is assessed here using quantile regressions. The framework acts to offset undue optimism in forecasting, with that effect tending to be at its strongest at those quantiles where forecasts are at their most optimistic and the attendant danger of the breaching of deficit limits from that source is at its greatest. Such an institution then provides an ameliorating influence against general biases and factors that cause errors in official forecasts.

Keywords: official forecasts; budgetary frameworks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E02 E66 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mohrsiebeck.com/en/article/institution ... s-101628fa-2024-0005
Fulltext access is included for subscribers to the printed version.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mhr:finarc:urn:doi:10.1628/fa-2024-0005

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
Mohr Siebeck GmbH & Co. KG, P.O.Box 2040, 72010 Tübingen, Germany

DOI: 10.1628/fa-2024-0005

Access Statistics for this article

FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis is currently edited by Alfons Weichenrieder, Ronnie Schöb and Jean-François Tremblay

More articles in FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis from Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Thomas Wolpert ().