Fast credit growth: equilibrium convergence or risky indebtedness?

Gergely Kiss ()
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Gergely Kiss: Magyar Nemzeti Bank (central bank of Hungary)

MNB Bulletin (discontinued), 2006, vol. 1, issue 1, 27-33

Abstract: This article is of relevance from an economic policy point of view – it attempts to answer a question of current economic relevance raised in many member states of the European Union. Is the fast credit growth witnessed in recent years part of an equilibrium process or rather an excessive rise in lending involving risks? The analysis prepared by the MNB suggests that in the new EU member states, the macroeconomic trends explain in great depth the rapid growth in lending witnessed since the transition to a market economy. It is important to note, however, that there are signs of excessive growth in lending in the region, particularly in the Baltic states. Stability risks may arise in Hungary in relation to the increase in household lending experienced in recent years.

Keywords: financial deepening; credit growth; transition economies; panel econometrics; endogeneity bias (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E44 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mnb:bullet:v:1:y:2006:i:1:p:27-33

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