Deglobalisation and Decoupling Tendencies in the Visegrad Countries in the Wake of the Polycrisis

Tamas Ginter () and Patrik Tischler ()
Additional contact information
Tamas Ginter: Magyar Nemzeti Bank, Andrassy University Budapest
Patrik Tischler: Magyar Nemzeti Bank

Financial and Economic Review, 2024, vol. 23, issue 2, 56-82

Abstract: After a number of shocks (including the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, in particular), global trade has undergone a transformation that is characterised by deglobalisation and decoupling tendencies. In this paper, we use descriptive statistics to analyse the short-term effects of exogenous shocks on international trade in the Visegrad countries. We find that between 2019 and 2022, deglobalisation tendencies were not persistent in the region. The trade-to-GDP ratio has exceeded the prepandemic levels (thus, the region is more globalised than in 2019), despite shortterm declines induced by the various shocks. While the region trades mainly with politically-economically aligned partners, the proportion of international trade with non-Western partners has also grown over the past four years. Trade with Russia has declined significantly since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, but decoupling from China has not started. However, certain country differences apply.

Keywords: deglobalisation; decoupling; Central and Eastern Europe; Visegrad countries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F02 F50 F62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://en-hitelintezetiszemle.mnb.hu/letoltes/fer-23-2-st2-ginter-tischler.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mnb:finrev:v:23:y:2024:i:2:p:56-82

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Financial and Economic Review from Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Morvay Endre ( this e-mail address is bad, please contact ).