Measuring and Analyzing the Common and Idiosyncratic Cycles: An Application for Turkish Manufacturing Industry

Emel Siklar and İlyas Şıklar

Business and Economic Research, 2021, vol. 11, issue 2, 279-300

Abstract: This study uses the Butterworth filter to decompose cyclical signals at low and high frequencies in the production data of the manufacturing industry and its sub-sectors. At low frequencies, the production trend exhibits considerable differences among industrial activities while most of the sub-sectors are more sensitive to common cycle than their own dynamics at high frequencies. Moreover, it is predicted that changes in the manufacture of basic metals sub-sector production can be used as a leading indicator for the expansion and contraction periods of the common cycle estimated for the manufacturing industry.

Keywords: Unobservable components; Butterworth filter; Idiosyncratic cycle (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mth:ber888:v:11:y:2021:i:2:p:279-300

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