Granger Causality between Stock Market and Macroeconomic Indicators: Evidence from Germany

Tomáš Plíhal

Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 2016, vol. 64, issue 6, 2101-2108

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate informational efficiency of the stock market in Germany. Granger causality between the stock market and the selected macroeconomic variables is investigated by bivariate analysis using Toda-Yamamoto (1995) approach. This study focuses on monthly data from January 1999 to September 2015, and the stock market is represented by blue chip stock market index DAX. Investigated macroeconomic indicators include industrial production, inflation, money supply, interest rate, trade balance and exchange rate. Stock market Granger-causes industrial production and interest rate, and is therefore leading indicator of these variables. Between money supply and stock prices is Granger causality in both directions. Other variables seem to be independent on development of the stock market. We do not find any violation of Efficient market hypothesis which indicates that the stock market in Germany is informational efficient.

Keywords: Granger causality; Efficient market hypothesis; DAX; stock market; macroeconomic indicators; Germany (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://acta.mendelu.cz/doi/10.11118/actaun201664062101.html (text/html)
http://acta.mendelu.cz/doi/10.11118/actaun201664062101.pdf (application/pdf)
free of charge

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mup:actaun:actaun_2016064062101

DOI: 10.11118/actaun201664062101

Access Statistics for this article

Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis is currently edited by Markéta Havlásková

More articles in Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis from Mendel University Press
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Ivo Andrle ().