The Justinianic Plague: An inconsequential pandemic?

Lee Mordechai (), Merle Eisenberg, Timothy P. Newfield, Adam Izdebski, Janet E. Kay and Hendrik Poinar
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Lee Mordechai: National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, Annapolis, MD 21401; History Department, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Mount Scopus, 9190501 Jerusalem, Israel
Merle Eisenberg: National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, Annapolis, MD 21401; History Department, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544
Timothy P. Newfield: History Department, Georgetown University, NW, Washington, DC 20057; Biology Department, Georgetown University, NW, Washington, DC 20057
Adam Izdebski: Paleo-Science & History Independent Research Group, Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History, 07745 Jena, Germany; Institute of History, Jagiellonian University, 31-007 Kraków, Poland
Janet E. Kay: Society of Fellows in the Liberal Arts, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544;
Hendrik Poinar: Department of Anthropology, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4L9, Canada; Department of Biochemistry, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4L9, Canada; McMaster Ancient DNA Centre, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4L9, Canada; Michael G. DeGroote Institute for Infectious Disease Research, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4L9, Canada

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2019, vol. 116, issue 51, 25546-25554

Abstract: Existing mortality estimates assert that the Justinianic Plague (circa 541 to 750 CE) caused tens of millions of deaths throughout the Mediterranean world and Europe, helping to end antiquity and start the Middle Ages. In this article, we argue that this paradigm does not fit the evidence. We examine a series of independent quantitative and qualitative datasets that are directly or indirectly linked to demographic and economic trends during this two-century period: Written sources, legislation, coinage, papyri, inscriptions, pollen, ancient DNA, and mortuary archaeology. Individually or together, they fail to support the maximalist paradigm: None has a clear independent link to plague outbreaks and none supports maximalist reconstructions of late antique plague. Instead of large-scale, disruptive mortality, when contextualized and examined together, the datasets suggest continuity across the plague period. Although demographic, economic, and political changes continued between the 6th and 8th centuries, the evidence does not support the now commonplace claim that the Justinianic Plague was a primary causal factor of them.

Keywords: Justinianic Plague; first plague pandemic; Late Antiquity; plague; Yersinia pestis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (13)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nas:journl:v:116:y:2019:p:25546-25554

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