US life expectancy stalls due to cardiovascular disease, not drug deaths

Neil K. Mehta, Leah R. Abrams and Mikko Myrskylä ()
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Neil K. Mehta: Department of Health Management and Policy, University of Michigan School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, MI 48109
Leah R. Abrams: Department of Health Management and Policy, University of Michigan School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, MI 48109
Mikko Myrskylä: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock 18057, Germany; Center for Social Data Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki 00014, Finland

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2020, vol. 117, issue 13, 6998-7000

Abstract: After decades of robust growth, the rise in US life expectancy stalled after 2010. Explanations for the stall have focused on rising drug-related deaths. Here we show that a stagnating decline in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality was the main culprit, outpacing and overshadowing the effects of all other causes of death. The CVD stagnation held back the increase of US life expectancy at age 25 y by 1.14 y in women and men, between 2010 and 2017. Rising drug-related deaths had a much smaller effect: 0.1 y in women and 0.4 y in men. Comparisons with other high-income countries reveal that the US CVD stagnation is unusually strong, contributing to a stark mortality divergence between the US and peer nations. Without the aid of CVD mortality declines, future US life expectancy gains must come from other causes—a monumental task given the enormity of earlier declines in CVD death rates. Reversal of the drug overdose epidemic will be beneficial, but insufficient for achieving pre-2010 pace of life expectancy growth.

Keywords: life expectancy; mortality; cardiovascular disease; drug-related mortality; opioid epidemic (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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