Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives

Kevin Schneider, Wopke van der Werf, Martina Cendoya, Monique Mourits, Juan A. Navas-Cortés, Antonio Vicent and Alfons Oude Lansink
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Wopke van der Werf: Centre for Crop Systems Analysis, Wageningen University, 6700 AK, Wageningen, Netherlands
Martina Cendoya: Centre de Protecció Vegetal i Biotecnología, Institut Valencià d’Investigacions Agràries, 46113 Moncada (Valencia), Spain;
Monique Mourits: Business Economics Group, Wageningen University, 6700 EW, Wageningen, Netherlands
Juan A. Navas-Cortés: Institute for Sustainable Agriculture, Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), 14004 Córdoba, Spain
Antonio Vicent: Centre de Protecció Vegetal i Biotecnología, Institut Valencià d’Investigacions Agràries, 46113 Moncada (Valencia), Spain
Alfons Oude Lansink: Business Economics Group, Wageningen University, 6700 EW, Wageningen, Netherlands

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2020, vol. 117, issue 17, 9250-9259

Abstract: Xylella fastidiosa is the causal agent of plant diseases that cause massive economic damage. In 2013, a strain of the bacterium was, for the first time, detected in the European territory (Italy), causing the Olive Quick Decline Syndrome. We simulate future spread of the disease based on climatic-suitability modeling and radial expansion of the invaded territory. An economic model is developed to compute impact based on discounted foregone profits and losses in investment. The model projects impact for Italy, Greece, and Spain, as these countries account for around 95% of the European olive oil production. Climatic suitability modeling indicates that, depending on the suitability threshold, 95.5 to 98.9%, 99.2 to 99.8%, and 84.6 to 99.1% of the national areas of production fall into suitable territory in Italy, Greece, and Spain, respectively. For Italy, across the considered rates of radial range expansion the potential economic impact over 50 y ranges from 1.9 billion to 5.2 billion Euros for the economic worst-case scenario, in which production ceases after orchards die off. If replanting with resistant varieties is feasible, the impact ranges from 0.6 billion to 1.6 billion Euros. Depending on whether replanting is feasible, between 0.5 billion and 1.3 billion Euros can be saved over the course of 50 y if disease spread is reduced from 5.18 to 1.1 km per year. The analysis stresses the necessity to strengthen the ongoing research on cultivar resistance traits and application of phytosanitary measures, including vector control and inoculum suppression, by removing host plants.

Keywords: species distribution models; radial range expansion; simulation; perennials; pest risk assessment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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