Predicting social tipping and norm change in controlled experiments

James Andreoni, Nikos Nikiforakis () and Simon Siegenthaler
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James Andreoni: Department of Economics, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093
Nikos Nikiforakis: Division of Social Science, New York University Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; Center for Behavioral Institutional Design, New York University Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2021, vol. 118, issue 16, e2014893118

Abstract: The ability to predict when societies will replace one social norm for another can have significant implications for welfare, especially when norms are detrimental. A popular theory poses that the pressure to conform to social norms creates tipping thresholds which, once passed, propel societies toward an alternative state. Predicting when societies will reach a tipping threshold, however, has been a major challenge because of the lack of experimental data for evaluating competing models. We present evidence from a large-scale laboratory experiment designed to test the theoretical predictions of a threshold model for social tipping and norm change. In our setting, societal preferences change gradually, forcing individuals to weigh the benefit from deviating from the norm against the cost from not conforming to the behavior of others. We show that the model correctly predicts in 96% of instances when a society will succeed or fail to abandon a detrimental norm. Strikingly, we observe widespread persistence of detrimental norms even when individuals determine the cost for nonconformity themselves as they set the latter too high. Interventions that facilitate a common understanding of the benefits from change help most societies abandon detrimental norms. We also show that instigators of change tend to be more risk tolerant and to dislike conformity more. Our findings demonstrate the value of threshold models for understanding social tipping in a broad range of social settings and for designing policies to promote welfare.

Keywords: social norms; conformity trap; tipping points; threshold models; laboratory experiment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Predicting Social Tipping and Norm Change in Controlled Experiments (2020)
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