Vaccinating the oldest against COVID-19 saves both the most lives and most years of life

Joshua R. Goldstein (), Thomas Cassidy and Kenneth W. Wachter
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Joshua R. Goldstein: Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720
Thomas Cassidy: Department of Mathematics, Bucknell University, Lewisburg, PA 17837
Kenneth W. Wachter: Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2021, vol. 118, issue 11, e2026322118

Abstract: Many competing criteria are under consideration for prioritizing COVID-19 vaccination. Two criteria based on age are demographic: lives saved and years of future life saved. Vaccinating the very old against COVID-19 saves the most lives, but, since older age is accompanied by falling life expectancy, it is widely supposed that these two goals are in conflict. We show this to be mistaken. The age patterns of COVID-19 mortality are such that vaccinating the oldest first saves the most lives and, surprisingly, also maximizes years of remaining life expectancy. We demonstrate this relationship empirically in the United States, Germany, and South Korea and with mathematical analysis of life tables. Our age-risk results, under usual conditions, also apply to health risks.

Keywords: COVID-19; years of life lost (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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