Activity-adjusted crime rates show that public safety worsened in 2020

Maxim Massenkoff and Aaron Chalfin
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Maxim Massenkoff: a Department of Defense Management, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA 93943;
Aaron Chalfin: b Department of Criminology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104;; c National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA 02138

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2022, vol. 119, issue 46, e2208598119

Abstract: The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic brought massive disruptions to economic and social life, including an unprecedented spike in homicides. Overall crime, however, was down. We resolve this apparent paradox by showing that after accounting for the fact that people were spending more time indoors in 2020, the risk of victimization in public actually increased. These recent changes in crime and activity provide a stark illustration of how conventional crime rates can fail to capture changes in public safety.

Keywords: crime; victimization; COVID-19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nas:journl:v:119:y:2022:p:e2208598119

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