Driving the grid forward: How electric vehicle adoption shapes power system infrastructure and emissions

Lily Hanig, Corey D. Harper, Destenie Nock and Jeremy J. Michalek ()
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Lily Hanig: a Department of Engineering and Public Policy , Carnegie Mellon University , Pittsburgh 15213 , Pennsylvania
Corey D. Harper: c Heinz College of Information Systems and Public Policy , Carnegie Mellon University , Pittsburgh 15213 , Pennsylvania
Destenie Nock: b Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering , Carnegie Mellon University , Pittsburgh 15213 , Pennsylvania
Jeremy J. Michalek: d Department of Mechanical Engineering , Carnegie Mellon University , Pittsburgh 15213 , Pennsylvania

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2025, vol. 122, issue 37, e2420609122

Abstract:

We model the effect of plug-in electric vehicle (EV) adoption on U.S. power system generator capacity investment, operations, and emissions through 2050 by estimating power systems outcomes under a range of EV adoption trajectory scenarios. Our EV adoption scenarios are informed by 1) an Energy Information Administration scenario with no policy intervention, 2) EV growth expected under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), 3) a Biden Administration 50% EV sales target by 2030, 4) the Environmental Protection Agency’s projections under vehicle emissions standards, and 5) the International Energy Agency’s roadmap to Net Zero by 2050. We find across these scenarios that increasing EV adoption induces investment in new wind, solar, storage, and natural gas capacity, affecting power generation mix and emissions. The net effect of increasing EV adoption beyond our IRA base case is to increase power sector emissions by about 5 mtCO 2 eq per EV-year in 2026 (comparable to displaced gasoline vehicle combustion emissions), but this effect rapidly drops to annual levels below 1 mtCO 2 eq per EV-year by 2032 and continues below this level through 2050. Consequential effects of EV adoption vary regionally, with most regions primarily increasing wind or solar capacity and some regions primarily increasing natural gas capacity, even in 2050. Our national emissions estimates per EV-year are relatively robust to the level of EV adoption beyond our baseline and to variation in assumptions about power systems, EV behavior, and policy.

Keywords: electric vehicles; greenhouse gas emissions; power systems; capacity expansion; consequential emissions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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