Climate change increases predation risk for a keystone species of the boreal forest

Michael J. L. Peers (), Yasmine N. Majchrzak, Allyson K. Menzies, Emily K. Studd, Guillaume Bastille-Rousseau, Rudy Boonstra, Murray Humphries, Thomas S. Jung, Alice J. Kenney, Charles J. Krebs, Dennis L. Murray and Stan Boutin
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Michael J. L. Peers: University of Alberta
Yasmine N. Majchrzak: University of Alberta
Allyson K. Menzies: McGill University
Emily K. Studd: McGill University
Guillaume Bastille-Rousseau: Colorado State University
Rudy Boonstra: University of Toronto Scarborough
Murray Humphries: McGill University
Thomas S. Jung: Government of Yukon
Alice J. Kenney: University of British Columbia
Charles J. Krebs: University of British Columbia
Dennis L. Murray: Trent University
Stan Boutin: University of Alberta

Nature Climate Change, 2020, vol. 10, issue 12, 1149-1153

Abstract: Abstract Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) and snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) form a keystone predator–prey cycle that has large impacts on the North American boreal forest vertebrate community. Snowshoe hares and lynx are both well-suited for snowy winters, but climate change-associated shifts in snow conditions could lower hare survival and alter cyclic dynamics. Using detailed monitoring of snowshoe hare cause-specific mortality, behaviour and prevailing weather, we demonstrate that hare mortality risk is strongly influenced by variation in snow conditions. Although predation risk from lynx was largely unaffected by snow conditions, coyote (Canis latrans) predation increased in shallow snow. Maximum snow depth in our study area has decreased 33% over the last two decades and predictions based on prolonged shallow snow indicate that future hare survival could resemble that seen during population declines. Our results indicate that climate change could disrupt cyclic dynamics in the boreal forest.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00908-4

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