Winter temperatures predominate in spring phenological responses to warming

A. K. Ettinger (), C. J. Chamberlain, I. Morales-Castilla, D. M. Buonaiuto, D. F. B. Flynn, T. Savas, J. A. Samaha and E. M. Wolkovich
Additional contact information
A. K. Ettinger: Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University
C. J. Chamberlain: Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University
I. Morales-Castilla: Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University
D. M. Buonaiuto: Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University
D. F. B. Flynn: Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University
T. Savas: Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University
J. A. Samaha: Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University
E. M. Wolkovich: Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University

Nature Climate Change, 2020, vol. 10, issue 12, 1137-1142

Abstract: Abstract Research on woody plant species highlights three major cues that shape spring phenological events: chilling, forcing and photoperiod. Increasing research on the phenological impacts of climate change has led to debate over whether chilling and/or photoperiod cues have slowed phenological responses to warming in recent years. Here we use a global meta-analysis of all published experiments to test the relative effects of these cues. Almost all species show strong responses to all three cues, with chilling being the strongest and photoperiod the weakest. Forecasts from our findings for Central Europe suggest that spring phenology will continue to advance, as stalling effects of chilling generally appear above 4 °C warming in this region. Our results unify both sides of the debate over phenological cues: while all species may respond to all cues strongly in experimental conditions, in current environmental conditions the dominant signal of climate change is from increased forcing.

Date: 2020
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-00917-3 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcli:v:10:y:2020:i:12:d:10.1038_s41558-020-00917-3

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/nclimate/

DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00917-3

Access Statistics for this article

Nature Climate Change is currently edited by Bronwyn Wake

More articles in Nature Climate Change from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().