Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework

Brian C. O’Neill (), Timothy R. Carter, Kristie Ebi, Paula A. Harrison, Eric Kemp-Benedict (), Kasper Kok, Elmar Kriegler, Benjamin L. Preston, Keywan Riahi, Jana Sillmann, Bas J. Ruijven, Detlef Vuuren, David Carlisle, Cecilia Conde, Jan Fuglestvedt, Carole Green, Tomoko Hasegawa, Julia Leininger, Seth Monteith and Ramon Pichs-Madruga
Additional contact information
Brian C. O’Neill: University of Denver
Timothy R. Carter: Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE)
Kristie Ebi: University of Washington
Paula A. Harrison: UK Centre of Ecology & Hydrology
Kasper Kok: Wageningen University & Research
Elmar Kriegler: Member of the Leibniz Association
Benjamin L. Preston: RAND Corporation
Keywan Riahi: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Jana Sillmann: Center for International Climate Research (CICERO)
Bas J. Ruijven: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Detlef Vuuren: Netherland Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)
David Carlisle: University of Denver
Cecilia Conde: National Autonomous University of Mexico (CCA-UNAM)
Jan Fuglestvedt: Center for International Climate Research (CICERO)
Carole Green: University of Denver
Tomoko Hasegawa: Ritsumeikan University
Julia Leininger: German Development Institute
Seth Monteith: ClimateWorks Foundation
Ramon Pichs-Madruga: Centre for World Economy Studies (CIEM)

Nature Climate Change, 2020, vol. 10, issue 12, 1074-1084

Abstract: Abstract Long-term global scenarios have underpinned research and assessment of global environmental change for four decades. Over the past ten years, the climate change research community has developed a scenario framework combining alternative futures of climate and society to facilitate integrated research and consistent assessment to inform policy. Here we assess how well this framework is working and what challenges it faces. We synthesize insights from scenario-based literature, community discussions and recent experience in assessments, concluding that the framework has been widely adopted across research communities and is largely meeting immediate needs. However, some mixed successes and a changing policy and research landscape present key challenges, and we recommend several new directions for the development and use of this framework.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00952-0

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