The fate of Madagascar’s rainforest habitat

Toni Lyn Morelli, Adam B. Smith, Amanda N. Mancini, Elizabeth A. Balko, Cortni Borgerson, Rainer Dolch, Zachary Farris, Sarah Federman, Christopher D. Golden, Sheila M. Holmes, Mitchell Irwin, Rachel L. Jacobs, Steig Johnson, Tony King, Shawn M. Lehman, Edward E. Louis, Asia Murphy, Hery N. T. Randriahaingo, H. L. Lucien Randrianarimanana, Jonah Ratsimbazafy, Onja H. Razafindratsima and Andrea L. Baden ()
Additional contact information
Toni Lyn Morelli: US Geological Survey, Department of Interior Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center
Adam B. Smith: Missouri Botanical Garden
Amanda N. Mancini: The Graduate Center of the City University of New York
Elizabeth A. Balko: SUNY Oswego
Cortni Borgerson: Montclair State University
Rainer Dolch: Association Mitsinjo
Zachary Farris: Appalachian State University
Sarah Federman: Yale University
Christopher D. Golden: Madagascar Health and Environmental Research (MAHERY)
Sheila M. Holmes: University of Calgary
Mitchell Irwin: Northern Illinois University
Rachel L. Jacobs: The George Washington University
Steig Johnson: University of Calgary
Tony King: The Aspinall Foundation
Shawn M. Lehman: University of Toronto
Edward E. Louis: Omaha’s Henry Doorly Zoo and Aquarium
Asia Murphy: Pennsylvania State University
Hery N. T. Randriahaingo: The Aspinall Foundation
H. L. Lucien Randrianarimanana: The Aspinall Foundation
Jonah Ratsimbazafy: Groupe d’Etude et de recherche sur les Primates de Madagascar
Onja H. Razafindratsima: South Dakota State University
Andrea L. Baden: The Graduate Center of the City University of New York

Nature Climate Change, 2020, vol. 10, issue 1, 89-96

Abstract: Abstract Madagascar has experienced extensive deforestation and overharvesting, and anthropogenic climate change will compound these pressures. Anticipating these threats to endangered species and their ecosystems requires considering both climate change and habitat loss effects. The genus Varecia (ruffed lemurs), which is composed of two Critically Endangered forest-obligate species, can serve as a status indicator of the biodiverse eastern rainforest of Madagascar. Here, we combined decades of research to show that the suitable habitat for ruffed lemurs could be reduced by 29–59% from deforestation, 14–75% from climate change (representative concentration pathway 8.5) or 38–93% from both by 2070. If current protected areas avoid further deforestation, climate change will still reduce the suitable habitat by 62% (range: 38–83%). If ongoing deforestation continues, the suitable habitat will decline by 81% (range: 66–93%). Maintaining and enhancing the integrity of protected areas, where rates of forest loss are lower, will be essential for ensuring persistence of the diversity of the rapidly diminishing Malagasy rainforests.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0647-x

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