Coal and carbonization in sub-Saharan Africa

Jan Steckel, Jérôme Hilaire, Michael Jakob and Ottmar Edenhofer
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Jérôme Hilaire: Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change
Michael Jakob: Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change

Nature Climate Change, 2020, vol. 10, issue 1, 83-88

Abstract: Abstract Economic development in sub-Saharan Africa has increased carbon emissions and will continue to do so. However, changes in emissions in the past few decades and their underlying drivers are not well understood. Here we use a Kaya decomposition to show that rising carbon intensity has played an increasingly important role in emission growth in sub-Saharan Africa since 2005. These changes have mainly been driven by the increasing use of oil, especially in the transportation sector. Combining investment data in the power sector with economic and population projections, we find that investments in new coal-fired capacity may become a major driver of future carbonization. Our results highlight the importance of making low-carbon technologies available and financially attractive to sub-Saharan African countries to avoid a lock-in of emission-intensive energy use patterns.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0649-8

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