Global and regional impacts differ between transient and equilibrium warmer worlds

Andrew D. King (), Todd P. Lane, Benjamin J. Henley and Josephine R. Brown
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Andrew D. King: University of Melbourne
Todd P. Lane: University of Melbourne
Benjamin J. Henley: University of Melbourne
Josephine R. Brown: University of Melbourne

Nature Climate Change, 2020, vol. 10, issue 1, 42-47

Abstract: Abstract There has recently been interest in understanding the differences between specific levels of global warming, especially the Paris Agreement limits of 1.5 °C and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. However, different model experiments1–3 have been used in these analyses under varying rates of increase in global-average temperature. Here, we use climate model simulations to show that, for a given global temperature, most land is significantly warmer in a rapidly warming (transient) case than in a quasi-equilibrium climate. This results in more than 90% of the world’s population experiencing a warmer local climate under transient global warming than equilibrium global warming. Relative to differences between the 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming limits, the differences between transient and quasi-equilibrium states are substantial. For many land regions, the probability of very warm seasons is at least two times greater in a transient climate than in a quasi-equilibrium equivalent. In developing regions, there are sizable differences between transient and quasi-equilibrium climates that underline the importance of explicitly framing projections. Our study highlights the need to better understand differences between future climates under rapid warming and quasi-equilibrium conditions for the development of climate change adaptation policies. Yet, current multi-model experiments1,4 are not designed for this purpose.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0658-7

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