Strong remote control of future equatorial warming by off-equatorial forcing

Malte F. Stuecker (), Axel Timmermann, Fei-Fei Jin, Cristian Proistosescu, Sarah M. Kang, Doyeon Kim, Kyung-Sook Yun, Eui-Seok Chung, Jung-Eun Chu, Cecilia M. Bitz, Kyle C. Armour and Michiya Hayashi
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Malte F. Stuecker: Institute for Basic Science
Axel Timmermann: Institute for Basic Science
Fei-Fei Jin: University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa
Cristian Proistosescu: University of Washington
Sarah M. Kang: Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology
Doyeon Kim: Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology
Kyung-Sook Yun: Institute for Basic Science
Eui-Seok Chung: Institute for Basic Science
Jung-Eun Chu: Institute for Basic Science
Cecilia M. Bitz: University of Washington
Kyle C. Armour: University of Washington
Michiya Hayashi: University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa

Nature Climate Change, 2020, vol. 10, issue 2, 124-129

Abstract: Abstract The tropical climate response to GHG forcing is spatially non-uniform1–3. Even though enhanced equatorial and eastern Pacific warming is simulated by most climate models, the underlying mechanisms—including the relative roles of atmospheric and oceanic feedbacks—remain debated. Here, we use a climate model with idealized CO2-radiative forcing patterns to show that off-equatorial radiative forcing and corresponding coupled circulation/cloud adjustments are responsible for much of equatorial warming in response to global CO2 forcing. For equatorial forcing, the atmosphere responds by enhancing atmospheric heat export to the extra-tropics, an associated strengthening of the ascending Hadley circulation branch and strong negative equatorial cloud feedbacks. These processes together greatly dampen equatorial surface warming. Intensification of the oceanic subtropical cells and increased cold subsurface water upwelling in the eastern tropical Pacific provide an additional negative feedback for surface temperatures. In contrast, applying off-equatorial forcing, the atmosphere responds by exporting less heat from the tropics, Hadley circulation weakening and weaker negative equatorial cloud feedbacks, while the subtropical cells slow down in the ocean. Our results demonstrate a delicate balance in the coupled climate system between remote circulation adjustments and regional feedbacks that create the patterns of future climate change.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0667-6

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