Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction

Angeline G. Pendergrass (), Gerald A. Meehl, Roger Pulwarty, Mike Hobbins, Andrew Hoell, Amir AghaKouchak, Céline J. W. Bonfils, Ailie J. E. Gallant, Martin Hoerling, David Hoffmann, Laurna Kaatz, Flavio Lehner, Dagmar Llewellyn, Philip Mote, Richard B. Neale, Jonathan T. Overpeck, Amanda Sheffield, Kerstin Stahl, Mark Svoboda, Matthew C. Wheeler, Andrew W. Wood and Connie A. Woodhouse
Additional contact information
Angeline G. Pendergrass: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Gerald A. Meehl: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Roger Pulwarty: NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory/Physical Sciences Division
Mike Hobbins: NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory/Physical Sciences Division
Andrew Hoell: NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory/Physical Sciences Division
Amir AghaKouchak: University of California
Céline J. W. Bonfils: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Ailie J. E. Gallant: Monash University
Martin Hoerling: NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory/Physical Sciences Division
David Hoffmann: Monash University
Laurna Kaatz: Denver Water
Flavio Lehner: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Dagmar Llewellyn: Bureau of Reclamation
Philip Mote: Oregon State University
Richard B. Neale: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Jonathan T. Overpeck: University of Michigan
Amanda Sheffield: NOAA/NIDIS, Scripps Institution of Oceanography
Kerstin Stahl: University of Freiburg
Mark Svoboda: University of Nebraska–Lincoln
Matthew C. Wheeler: Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Andrew W. Wood: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Connie A. Woodhouse: University of Arizona

Nature Climate Change, 2020, vol. 10, issue 3, 191-199

Abstract: Abstract Flash droughts are a recently recognized type of extreme event distinguished by sudden onset and rapid intensification of drought conditions with severe impacts. They unfold on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales (weeks to months), presenting a new challenge for the surge of interest in improving subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Here we discuss existing prediction capability for flash droughts and what is needed to establish their predictability. We place them in the context of synoptic to centennial phenomena, consider how they could be incorporated into early warning systems and risk management, and propose two definitions. The growing awareness that flash droughts involve particular processes and severe impacts, and probably a climate change dimension, makes them a compelling frontier for research, monitoring and prediction.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0709-0

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