The co-evolution of technological promises, modelling, policies and climate change targets

Duncan McLaren () and Nils Markusson
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Duncan McLaren: Lancaster University
Nils Markusson: Lancaster University

Nature Climate Change, 2020, vol. 10, issue 5, 392-397

Abstract: Abstract The nature and framing of climate targets in international politics has changed substantially since their early expressions in the 1980s. Here, we describe their evolution in five phases—from ‘climate stabilization’ to specific ‘temperature outcomes’—co-evolving with wider climate politics and policy, modelling methods and scenarios, and technological promises (from nuclear power to carbon removal). We argue that this co-evolution has enabled policy prevarication, leaving mitigation poorly delivered, yet the technological promises often remain buried in the models used to inform policy. We conclude with a call to recognise and break this pattern to unleash more effective and just climate policy.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0740-1

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