Synchronized tropical Pacific and extratropical variability during the past three decades

Jun-Chao Yang, Xiaopei Lin (), Shang-Ping Xie, Yu Zhang, Yu Kosaka and Ziguang Li
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Jun-Chao Yang: Ocean University of China
Xiaopei Lin: Ocean University of China
Shang-Ping Xie: University of California San Diego
Yu Zhang: Ocean University of China
Yu Kosaka: University of Tokyo
Ziguang Li: Ocean University of China

Nature Climate Change, 2020, vol. 10, issue 5, 422-427

Abstract: Abstract Internally generated decadal variability influences global mean surface temperature (GMST), inducing acceleration and slowdown of the warming rate under anthropogenic radiative forcing1–4. While tropical eastern Pacific variability is important for annual-mean GMST2,5–8, the cold ocean–warm land (COWL) pattern9,10 also contributes to continental temperature variability11–13 in the boreal cold season. Although the two contributors are physically independent10,12, here we show that, after the mid-1980s, their decadal components vary in phase by chance to strengthen internal GMST trends, contributing to the early 2000s slowdown and early 2010s acceleration. The synchronized tropical Pacific and COWL variability explains the striking seasonality of the recent slowdown and acceleration during which the GMST trend in the boreal cold season is markedly negative and positive, respectively. Climate models cannot simulate the exact timing of the tropical Pacific and COWL correlations because they are physically independent, random-phased modes of internal variability.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0753-9

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