Drought less predictable under declining future snowpack

Ben Livneh () and Andrew M. Badger
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Ben Livneh: University of Colorado Boulder
Andrew M. Badger: Universities Space Research Association

Nature Climate Change, 2020, vol. 10, issue 5, 452-458

Abstract: Abstract Mountain snowpack serves as an immense natural water reservoir, and knowledge of snow conditions helps predict seasonal water availability and offers critical early warning of hydrologic drought. This paradigm faces an impending challenge given consensus that a smaller fraction of future precipitation will fall as snow. Here, we apply downscaled hydrologic simulations from 28 climate model projections to show that by mid-century (2036–2065), 69% of historically snowmelt-dominated areas of the western United States see a decline in the ability of snow to predict seasonal drought, increasing to 83% by late century (2070–2099). Reduced predictability arises when peak snowpack approaches zero or because of decreased warm-season runoff efficiency. Changes in drought prediction skill show significant (P

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0754-8

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