Climate velocity reveals increasing exposure of deep-ocean biodiversity to future warming

Isaac Brito-Morales (), David S. Schoeman, Jorge García Molinos, Michael T. Burrows, Carissa J. Klein, Nur Arafeh-Dalmau, Kristin Kaschner, Cristina Garilao, Kathleen Kesner-Reyes and Anthony J. Richardson
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Isaac Brito-Morales: The University of Queensland
David S. Schoeman: University of the Sunshine Coast
Jorge García Molinos: Hokkaido University
Michael T. Burrows: Scottish Association for Marine Science
Carissa J. Klein: The University of Queensland
Nur Arafeh-Dalmau: The University of Queensland
Kristin Kaschner: Albert‐Ludwigs University
Cristina Garilao: GEOMAR, Helmholtz‐Zentrum für Ozeanforschung
Kathleen Kesner-Reyes: International Rice Research Institute
Anthony J. Richardson: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Oceans and Atmosphere, BioSciences Precinct (QBP)

Nature Climate Change, 2020, vol. 10, issue 6, 576-581

Abstract: Abstract Slower warming in the deep ocean encourages a perception that its biodiversity is less exposed to climate change than that of surface waters. We challenge this notion by analysing climate velocity, which provides expectations for species’ range shifts. We find that contemporary (1955–2005) climate velocities are faster in the deep ocean than at the surface. Moreover, projected climate velocities in the future (2050–2100) are faster for all depth layers, except at the surface, under the most aggressive GHG mitigation pathway considered (representative concentration pathway, RCP 2.6). This suggests that while mitigation could limit climate change threats for surface biodiversity, deep-ocean biodiversity faces an unavoidable escalation in climate velocities, most prominently in the mesopelagic (200–1,000 m). To optimize opportunities for climate adaptation among deep-ocean communities, future open-ocean protected areas must be designed to retain species moving at different speeds at different depths under climate change while managing non-climate threats, such as fishing and mining.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0773-5

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