Record warming at the South Pole during the past three decades

Kyle R. Clem (), Ryan L. Fogt, John Turner, Benjamin R. Lintner, Gareth J. Marshall, James R. Miller and James A. Renwick
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Kyle R. Clem: Victoria University of Wellington
Ryan L. Fogt: Ohio University
John Turner: British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council
Benjamin R. Lintner: Rutgers University
Gareth J. Marshall: British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council
James R. Miller: Rutgers University
James A. Renwick: Victoria University of Wellington

Nature Climate Change, 2020, vol. 10, issue 8, 762-770

Abstract: Abstract Over the last three decades, the South Pole has experienced a record-high statistically significant warming of 0.61 ± 0.34 °C per decade, more than three times the global average. Here, we use an ensemble of climate model experiments to show this recent warming lies within the upper bounds of the simulated range of natural variability. The warming resulted from a strong cyclonic anomaly in the Weddell Sea caused by increasing sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Pacific. This circulation, coupled with a positive polarity of the Southern Annular Mode, advected warm and moist air from the South Atlantic into the Antarctic interior. These results underscore the intimate linkage of interior Antarctic climate to tropical variability. Further, this study shows that atmospheric internal variability can induce extreme regional climate change over the Antarctic interior, which has masked any anthropogenic warming signal there during the twenty-first century.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0815-z

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